Market news ยท October 28, 2026
NAR Cut Its 2026 Forecast. Denver's $1M+ Market Kept Moving.
NAR now expects 2026 home sales to grow 2% or less as mortgage rates stay above 7%. Above $1 million in the Denver metro, sales are still up. Here is what that means for your next move.
A live person answers. Not a robot, not a phone tree.
NAR's 2026 forecast cut is a story about financed buyers, and the Denver luxury market runs on a different engine. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun now expects existing-home sales and prices to grow 2% or less this year because mortgage rates have stayed above 7% since the last week of September, Realtor.com reported on October 21. In the same market, DMAR's September 2026 report shows Denver metro closings above $1 million up 1.99% for the year, while total closings are down 4.96%. Luxury buyers with cash or large down payments are still buying, and they have more room to negotiate than they have had in years. The Kenna Group at Keller Williams DTC breaks down what that means for buyers and sellers above $1 million.
The numbers, October 2026
Two markets, one metro.
01
What NAR changed, and why.
- Three forecasts in one year. Last November Yun expected 2026 sales up 14% and the median price up 4%. In April he cut sales to 4%. Now it is 2% or less for both sales and prices, with new-home sales down 5%.
- The reason is the rate. Yun built his outlook on a 6.5% average rate. Rates rose fast instead, and Freddie Mac's average sat at 7.32% on October 22, against 6.19% a year earlier.
- Other forecasters agree. MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni told the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual conference this month he expects rates near 7.3% for the rest of 2026 and above 7% through 2027. Realtor.com's July forecast had prices up 1.2% for the year.
02
The payment on a $1.5 million home.
With 20% down, a $1.5 million purchase leaves a $1.2 million loan, a jumbo loan above the Denver metro conforming limit. Jumbo pricing differs from the Freddie Mac average, so treat these as example rates for comparison, not a rate offer. Get written quotes from a lender of your choice.
| 30-year rate (example) | Monthly principal and interest | Difference vs. 7.32% |
|---|---|---|
| 7.32% (Freddie Mac average, Oct. 22) | $8,243 | - |
| 6.5% (Yun's original 2026 assumption) | $7,585 | $658 less a month |
| 6.0% (Yun's early-2027 scenario) | $7,195 | $1,048 less a month, $12,583 a year |
Property tax on a $1.5 million home runs about $8,100 to $10,700 a year in the Denver-area tax areas we checked; see property tax on a luxury home in Colorado.
03
What luxury buyers and sellers do now.
- Buyers: negotiate the terms, not only the price. Today kennarealestate.com shows 483 Douglas County homes, 194 Arapahoe County homes and 537 Denver homes listed at $1 million or more. Ask for a rate buydown, a closing date that fits your sale, or a rent-back. See buying before you sell.
- Buyers paying cash: you hold the strongest hand. A cash offer skips the jumbo approval and the appraisal gap. Read pay cash or finance before you move the money.
- Sellers: price for the first three weeks. DMAR's $1M+ homes that sold in September took a median of 21 days. Active $1M+ listings in Douglas County average 98 days on the market today. The gap is pricing. See how long a luxury home takes to sell in Denver.
- Sellers between $800,000 and $1.3 million: your buyer finances. This is the range the rate hits hardest. Offer a buydown credit in the listing so the buyer sees a lower payment up front.
04
If rates drop toward 6% in 2027.
Yun told Realtors in Las Vegas that rates closer to 6% at the start of 2027 bring sidelined buyers back, and that in past recessions other than the subprime crash, rates fell and home sales rose. Fratantoni sees rates above 7% through 2027. On a $1.2 million loan, the move from 7.32% to 6% is worth $1,048 a month. Buyers who purchase now with room to negotiate keep the option to refinance; buyers who wait get the lower rate and the competition that comes with it.
The mass-market version of this story, with the payment math on a $650,000 Denver metro home and Douglas and Arapahoe county listings, is on the Kenna News Desk: NAR cuts its 2026 forecast: what 7% rates mean for Denver buyers.
Quick answers
Questions, answered.
What did NAR forecast for 2026 home sales?
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun now expects 2026 existing-home sales and prices to grow 2% or less compared with 2025, and new-home sales to fall 5%, Realtor.com reported on October 21, 2026. Last November he forecast a 14% rise in sales.
Is the Denver luxury market slowing down?
Not at the top. DMAR's September 2026 report shows $1 million-plus closings up 1.99% for the year at 4,449 sales and $7.30 billion in volume, while total Denver metro closings are down 4.96%. Those homes sold in a median of 21 days in September.
How much is the payment on a $1.5 million home at 7%?
With 20% down, a $1.2 million loan at 7.32%, Freddie Mac's October 22 average, is $8,243 a month in principal and interest. At 6% it is $7,195, or $1,048 less. A loan this size is a jumbo loan, priced separately; get quotes from a lender of your choice. These are example rates, not a rate offer.
Should I pay cash for a luxury home while rates are above 7%?
Cash wins the negotiation and skips the jumbo approval. Compare what that cash earns elsewhere with the 7% you avoid, and keep enough liquid for taxes, insurance and reserves. You can also buy with cash now and take a mortgage later through delayed financing.
What happens to luxury prices if rates fall toward 6% in 2027?
Yun says rates closer to 6% at the start of 2027 bring sidelined buyers back. MBA's Mike Fratantoni expects rates above 7% through 2027. If rates fall, competition returns to the $800,000 to $1.3 million range first, where most buyers finance.
Private consultation
Buying or selling above $1 million? Ask us.
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Kenna Luxury Real Estate is part of The Kenna Group, a real estate group with Keller Williams Realty DTC, LLC (Keller Williams DTC), formerly known as Kenna Real Estate Group.